Oscar predictions: Who should and will win

Actually, the main question that pops into my mind about the Oscars this morning is why in the world do they wait so long between announcing the nominees and declaring the winners? Rather than building suspense, it really just sucks a lot of fun out of it as all the other awards get to go first, adding up to kudos overkill.

Still and all, they are the Oscars, so I'll tune in. And here are my predictions of who will win - and my picks of who should win - on Sunday night's broadcast.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom".
Should win: Jacki Weaver. If you haven't seen this gritty Australian gangster flick, definitely rent it if only to see how Weaver runs her family of two-bit crooks with her unique version of a mother's love.
Will win: Amy Adams and Melissa Leo should cancel either out here, with Hailee Steinfeld emerging as the winner, and why not? She really should be in the Best Actress category, but she was funny, fierce and fragile all at once in the Coen brothers' flick.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech".
Should win: John Hawkes, who as uncle "Teardrop" held all the cards he had about the movie's main mystery very close before playing them with perfect precision to help his niece find out the truth about his brother.
Will win: Unless he gets steamrolled by the "The King's Speech" express and Geoffrey Rush, who should really be a Best Actor nominee anyway, Christian Bale will run away with this for throwing himself so completely into the role of crack-addicted boxing trainer Dickie Eklund.

Best Actress
The nominees: Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine".
Should win: Michelle Williams. Along with Ryan Gosling, a major omission from the Best Actor field, she made up one half of the doomed couple at the center of Derek Cianfrance's great movie, and made her heartache surprisingly compelling - if not exactly fun - to watch.
Will win: This is easily the strongest category of the night, but in a battle mainly between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman, Portman will prevail for her portrayal of Nina, the ballerina driven way beyond the brink of madness in "Black Swan."

Best Actor:
The nominees: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours".
Should win: James Franco, who is the co-host of this year's Oscars broadcast with Anne Hathaway, took us on the full ride of emotions in Danny Boyle's exhilarating "127 Hours", even as he was trapped in a hole for most of the movie.
Will win: There's no stopping the king here, so Colin Firth will prevail for his pitch-perfect performance of stammering monarch George VI.

Best Director
The nominees: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit".
Should win: Darren Aronofsky turned what easily could have been a schlocky B-movie (and often still is) into a superb psychological thriller with "Black Swan," and for that he should be rewarded.
Will win: There's nothing people hate more here than a Best Director/Best Picture split, but I think that's what we'll have, with David Fincher winning Best Director for turning Aaron Sorkin's whip smart script about the creation of Facebook into an equally fun movie.

Best Picture
The nominees: "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "Inception", "The Kids Are All Right", "The King's Speech", "127 Hours", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "True Grit", "Winter's Bone".
Should win: Debra Granik's "Winter's Bone", a coming of age tale/film noir set in the Ozarks, has long been my favorite movie of 2010, and time has done nothing to change that.
Will win: The early buzz was for "The Social Network", but the late mojo is behind "The King's Speech", which will prevail, and as a period piece that has managed to become the people's champ without being stodgy, I can certainly live with that.

And there you have it. Please feel free to let me know of any of these you think I just got completely wrong and, for an awards list that's always much more fun (and a lot shorter) than the Oscars, check out the Bob Awards here. Always a great read. Peace out.

Oscar surprises - the good, the bad and the ugly

Actually, before I get into any of that, and it really was a pretty great year for interesting movies getting deserved Oscar nominations, there are three tidbits of perhaps fresher news out there that caught my eye this morning.

First up, with "Red" hitting DVD shelves this week (and my home player this weekend), Summit has announced that a sequel to the octogenarian comic book hit is on, and to that I can only say bully. If you happened to stop by yesterday, you know I pretty much love the original, which captured the comic book feel nearly perfectly and was just a whole lot of fun.

So far for the sequel, Summit has hired brothers Erich and Jon Hoeber, who wrote the script for the first movie, but as yet no actors. I have to assume, though, that if they come up with anything even pretty good, Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren, John Malkovich and hopefully even the great Brian Cox will all be back for more. Stay tuned.

In other news, fresh off his Oscar love for "The Social Network," it seems that Aaron Sorkin is headed back to TV with something that could be fascinating - at least if its a lot more "Sports Night" than "Studio 60." He has told the BBC he's working with HBO on a series that would be set back stage at a cable news show.

Now, I can only take those shows in very small doses, and the only one I watch with any regularity is "Morning Joe," but they're still certainly an interesting petri dish of ideas and bombast for Sorkin to play around in, assuming this is happening as he says. Unfortunately, it seems that Keith Olberman, who I was hoping was now gone from TV pretty much for good, may be back on this as a character of some kind.

And finally, before I get into the Oscars, buzz has been building about an Alfred Hitchcock biopic, which I'd be hesitant about if it weren't coming together so well so far. Though it's hard to call it high art, there are very few documentaries that I've seen in the past 10 years or so that are more entertaining than Sasha Gervasi's "Anvil: The Story of Anvil," which chronicles the misadventures of Canada's hardest-working heavy metal band (yes, really).

For his next project, Gervasi is now in talks to direct an adaptation of the Stephen Rebello book "Alfred Hitchcock and the Making of Psycho," which would be about exactly what the title says. Even better, Sir Anthony Hopkins, who's hamming it up this week in his own "horror" movie which I won't be going to see, "The Rite," is now in talks to play Hitchcock himself. Nothing but potential perfection there, methinks.

OK, on to the Oscars, which contained some surprises this year, most of them good for once. Being a glass half full kind of dude on my best days, I'll start with the good, and try my best to make that portion longer. Here goes.

The good

All the love for "Winter's Bone": I've made it no secret around here that Debra Granik's coming-of-age film noir of sorts set in the Ozarks is, by a pretty wide margin, my single favorite movie of 2010, so I wasn't terribly surprised that it managed to sneak into the Best Picture top 10 (to brag just a bit, I managed to predict the 10 nominees here a week ago, correctly tapping this and "127 Hours" for the final two spots.)

What I didn't expect, but certainly support, is acting nods for both Jennifer Lawrence (Best Actress) and John Hawkes (Best Supporting Actor). Though she'd get my vote for carrying this movie with a fragile but still unwavering will, I don't think Lawrence has any chance in a category that will probably belong to Annette Bening or Natalie Portman (of the two, I'll take the latter in "Black Swan"). Hawkes, likewise, will probably get knocked out by Christian Bale's electric turn as Dickie Eklund in "The Fighter," but any recognition of his key role as uncle "Teardrop" is welcome in this little corner of the world.

And for an award that "Winter's Bone" might actually win, it's great to see writer/director Debra Granik nominated for best adapted screenplay, though if I were a betting man, I'd say that award will ultimately go to Sorkin for "The Social Network."

Michelle Williams: Granted, I only manged to see "Blue Valentine" last week, and so it's very fresh on my brain, but Williams' nomination for Best Actress brought the biggest smile to my face Tuesday morning. Along with Ryan Gosling (more on that in a bit), she dragged viewers smack into the middle of a romance that burns extremely bright thanks to her passionate performance before of course crashing equally hard, and it would have been a much more uncomfortable viewing experience if she weren't so magnetic at the center of it all.

Jacki Weaver: That may not be a name familiar to very many people, but it should be, especially with "Animal Kingdom" now out on DVD. In that truly gritty Aussie gangster flick, which made my top 10 for the year, she plays the menacing but fiercely loyal matriarch of the doomed Cody small-time crime clan, and steals every minute ehe's allotted. This category will probably go to either Helena Bonham Carter for "The King's Speech" or Melissa Leo for "The Fighter," either of which would be fine, but I'd much rather see youth be served with Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit" (though she really is a leading actress, of course!), or even better, the long shot Weaver somehow come out on top.

"The Illusionist": My co-workers were grumbling yesterday about how in the world "Despicable Me" could have been left off the list for Best Animated Picture, and I'm with them there. Disney's "Tangled" also got shafted, and while that doesn't really bother me at all, it does raise a bigger question: Why only three nominees in this key category? I mean, we all know "Toy Story 3" is going to win, but three is still a ridiculously small number. At least they did manage to squeeze in Sylvain Chomet's "The Illusionist," an odd little movie that, like Chomet's "The Triplets of Belleville" before it, has practically no discernible dialogue at all. What it does, have, however, in telling the story of a magician who adopts a young traveling partner who thinks his tricks are real, is a lot of humor and heart, exactly what I look for in a great animated movie.

The bad:

The best director category: Say what you want to about "Inception," but no director took more chances this year than Christopher Nolan, so with that flick nominated for Best Picture, why not Nolan for Best Director? This doesn't really miff me as much as some, but it is a real head-scratcher. More important, I think, is how in the world did the Academy manage to recognize no women in this category? Lisa Cholodenko was certainly a possibility for "The Kids Are All Right," but I really think that's the weak link in the Best Picture field. Much better would have been Granik, who delivered nothing short of a masterpiece (a term I try not to throw around a lot, but it's deserved here - watch it already!) with "Winter's Bone." Apparently handing one Oscar to Kathyrn Bigelow was enough for a while. Sheesh. I predict a split decision here, with "The King's Speech" winning Best Picture by sheer momentum, but David Fincher taking Best Director for "The Social Network."

Ryan Gosling: Also among the office Oscar chatter I heard yesterday was that Julia Roberts threw a party just last week to throw her weight behind Javier Bardem being nominated for Best Actor for "Biutiful" (which I haven't seen). Who knows if that had any effect, but if so, it's a real crime, because how in the world do you nominate Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine" but not her worse (relationship-wise) but at least equal (acting-wise) half? Simply maddening, but if you haven't seen this movie yet, just do while you can, because in spite of its difficult subject matter, it really is a joy to behold.

Cinematography: It was a pretty banner day for "127 Hours," which certainly made me cheer. Oscar co-host James Franco got a much-deserved Best Actor nomination, Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy are rightly up for Best Adapated Screenplay, and it of course snuck into the Best Picture field (and into movie theaters in my little corner of the world this weekend - bully). But how in the world were Enrique Chediak and Anthony Dod Mantle not recognized for the beautiful camera work that made both the euphoric highs and depressing lows (there are more of the former, thankfully) just shine so bright on screen? I just assumed this was a lock, because along with being an all-around great film, it just looks like nothing else that hit theaters in 2010, and how many movies can you really say that about?

OK, there you have it. I'm off now somewhat late to the job that still actually pays, but please feel free to add any Oscar surprises of your own that just made you smile or grown, and have a perfectly passable Wednesday. Peace out.

So, which classic tale will Tim Burton f*** up next?

Actually, easily the best (or, really, worst) story out there today is that Steven Soderbergh's "Moneyball," based on the book by Oakland A's smartguy Billy Beane and set to begin filming today, has suddenly been shut down by Columbia Pictures.

Details are sketchy so far, but it seems that someone at the studio read the latest script draft, which had been rewritten by Soderbergh himself from a first attempt by Steven Zaillan, and was much less than pleased. Now, I have no way of confirming this, of course, but after Brad Pitt walked away from "State of Play" fairly far into production, I have to wonder if Pitt, who was set to play Beane, also threatened to walk away from the project.

Either way, the bad news is all for us, because unless another studio steps up to revive this, we lose out on a possibly great baseball movie, a quickly dying breed of flick. (And, just as a reminder, the mighty Baltimore Orioles have just completed a 7-2 swing through the lowly National League East, so watch out!)

And easily the funniest would have to be that director Marcus Nispel (apparently the director of some form of "Friday the 13th," but I really can't give you first-hand confirmation of that) has found his steroid monster to play the new "Conan."

Am I the only person who remembers that old, extremely silly F/X show starring Timothy Stack, "Son of the Beach"? Now, if you don't, all you really need to know is that it was produced by Howard Stern, so you know the humor was straight from the gutter, but I also have to admit that as a spoof of "Baywatch" it just made me laugh.

Anyways, it seems that bodybuilder Roland Kickinger, who played lifeguard Chip Rommel (yes, the character's German, and that's exactly the kind of humor the showed reveled in) on the show has signed on to play the rather iconic role of "Conan." I can't see any possible way I'll see this, but I just thought someone out there might find this as oddly funny as I do.

But the most disturbing thing here today comes courtesy of USA Today, I believe, and it's the first character glimpses of what Tim Burton is cooking up for his take on "Alice in Wonderland."

Why disturbing? Well, to me, Burton is just the most maddening of directors. When he wraps his mind around a concept he clearly gets into, he can come up with some truly magical movies, such as "Ed Wood" or my personal favorite, "Big Fish."

Just as often, however, he feels the need to pop out remakes that either add nothing to the originals or, much worse, crap all over them. As an example of the former, his "Planet of the Apes" managed to be both thoroughly unnecessary and completely boring. His "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" was much more ominous, with Johnny Depp turning Willie Wonka into some kind of Michael Jackson-style freak and making the movie simply unwatchable once the factory doors opened.

Well, now we have these three pieces of character art that show his vision of "Alice in Wonderland" will be very colorful, and hopefully somehow better than these last two. Below are Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter, Helena Bonham Carter (of course) as the Red Queen and Anne Hathaway as the White Queen. Enjoy, and have a perfectly bearable Monday. Peace out.

Burton's "Sweeney Todd" is just about pitch-perfect

In just about every second of "Sweeney Todd" you get what looks like a movie that could have only come from the delightfully twisted mind of Tim Burton. Which, of course, it didn't, exactly.

Just as the Coens did perfectly with Cormac McCarthy's "No Country for Old Men," Burton here has adapted another's work, Stephen Sondheim's famed musical, and made it all his own. But whereas the Coens made their mark largely with dialogue, most of what will linger with you for a long time after watching "Sweeney Todd" is its stark and stunning look.

Burton's and Todd's London is indeed "a hole in the world like a great black pit/and the vermin of the world inhabit it," but much of the joy in watching "Sweeney Todd" is in seeing the bits of color seep through, from Mrs. Lovett's hair as she descends the stairwell from the barbershop to the blood, buckets and buckets which we all know will eventually cover the screen (but more about that later.)

As a musical, I'm sure it helped that, although I do know more than a bit about Broadway, about "Sweeney Todd" I knew very little to nothing at all going in. Even with Sondheim directly involved, there were certainly beloved songs that had to be chopped to make this clock in at less than two hours. And one thing that was left out and was a definite plus was any appearance by the musical butcher himself, Danny Elfman. Only after the opening credits had finished was I able to get over my fear that a blood-spattered Oompa-Loompa was gonna pop out at any second.

As he made clear in the New York Times recently, Sondheim considers this easily one of the best musical adaptations of Broadway to the big screen yet, and I have to agree with him. I can't quite go as far as he did in attacking the more phonily staged numbers of "West Side Story," for which I still have undying love, but he's right that there is a fluidity to "Sweeney Todd" that never lets you think you're watching a filmed stage musical rather than a natural movie that just happens to be full of singing.

And how do our main singers fare in this? Extremely and surprisingly well. I don't think Johnny Depp (the demon barber himself) or Helena Bonham Carter (Mrs. Lovett) will be headed to Broadway themselves anytime soon, but they each bring their own strengths to the roles and take them over. Depp never leaves any doubt that Sweeney Todd is, indeed, just mad as a diseased cow, and Bonham Carter takes Mrs. Lovett in a completely different direction from what has been done before on stage by Angela Lansbury or Patti Lupone, channeling her inner Bellatrix to make the pie maker's many funny lines even more twisted.

There was one moment near the beginning when I feared this movie was going to turn toward "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" territory rather than something approaching Burton's best work, which for me is still "The Nightmare Before Christmas." It comes as Sweeney Todd gets off the boat and heads into London. Rather than letting us take it in, the camera suddenly zooms through the streets, jumping from spot to spot until it finally rests at Mrs. Lovett's shop. It was just thoroughly out of place, but luckily just about the only discordant in this otherwise very pleasing piece. (My only other complaint, and it's really just a quibble, is that I had heard Anthony Head of "Buffy" fame was going to be in this, but if it was he had exactly one line in the market scene stolen away by Sacha Baron Cohen.)

But what about all that blood? Well, if you went into a Tim Burton movie with the words "Demon Barber" in the title and weren't ready for a river of blood to flow than you simply need to do more homework before going to the movies. And yes, when Todd does indeed start cutting throats rather than hair (I really can't be giving too much away here, can I?), there does seem to be blood all over the screen, but it really couldn't have ended any other way. Watching as it slowly consumes the formerly almost colorless palate is the perfect way to convey Todd's descent into complete madness, and the final blood-covered scene is one that will stick with you for a long, long time.

But, unfortunately, just about the only things left standing at the end of this bloodbath were those damn Chipmunks, who managed to hold onto third place and knock "Sweeney Todd" down to fifth (behind even "Charlie Wilson's War," which I also thoroughly enjoyed, but more about that tomorrow.) Though it's obviously not for everyone, I hope more people will take a chance on "Sweeney Todd" this week, because if you have a slightly warped view of the world it indeed makes just about the perfect Christmas movie. Peace out, and have a merry, merry Christmas!

EW offers look at sordid state of "The Hobbit"

With this being from Entertainment Weekly, you can guess that it's not exactly the most profound piece of journalism penned to date, but the new piece about "The Hobbit" by Benjamin Svetkey does offer a pretty nifty summary of the story so far.

And, of course, none of it is pretty. I won't swipe the whole thing, which would be rather rude, but here are a few of the highlights (or, perhaps more accurately, lowlights):

On the hopeful side, EW reminds readers that, after months of publicly calling director Peter Jackson just about every bad name he could muster, New Line chief Bob Shaye made this rather remarkable turnaround to the L.A. Times in August: ''Notwithstanding our personal quarrels. Ireally respect and admire Peter and would love for him to be creatively involved in some way in The Hobbit.''

Another sign that some real progess toward having Jackson involved in "The Hobbit" is that the courts are taking real action with his suit against New Line to have the books from the three "Rings" movies audited. Last month the company was fined $125,000 for failing to provide requested accounting documents, and, EW states with no further sourcing: even in the weeks before that ruling, there were signs that New Line's hard line was beginning to buckle.

Even if the two sides facing off over what, after all, is a children's movie manage to stop acting like tempermental children, there are of course several other obstacles, mainly time. At some future date which EW didn't specify, the producer Saul Zaentz, who had a hand in that rather silly animated "Lord of the Rings" flick from the '70s, will regain the rights he once had to "The Hobbit." New Line could, of course, still buy it back from him, but that would just add another ugly wrinkle to this already protracted tale.

Jackson and his creative partner, Fran Walsh, have made rumblings about actually making two "Hobbit" movies, one based on the book and another fleshing out notes from J.R.R. Tolkein to bridge the gap between "The Hobbit" and the "Rings" books, which take place some 60 years in the future.

But, as EW points out, the biggest enemy of even one "Hobbit" flick may be Jackson's schedule. He's already about to start shooting "The Lovely Bones" (the next book on my reading list), and is then already committed to direct an installment in the coming "Tintin" trilogy.

Even if this means he's only involved with "The Hobbit" as an executive producer, with another director (please, after watching the simply excremental "Spidey 3," don't let it be Sam Raimi!!), there are signs a big decision that will let this finally move forward may be coming soon. Since this story has already lasted a lot longer than Bilbo's quest to separate Smaug from his ill-gotten bounty, we can only hope so. You can read all of the EW article here.


Hope for a "Serenity 2"?

This glimmer, and that's really all I can it, comes from "Firefly" and "Serenity" star Alan Tudyk, via the fine folks at Moviehole.

Tudyk, a k a Serenity pilot Wash, told Moviehole that, due to how well both editions of "Serenity" have been selling on DVD, there is indeed "talk" about doing a sequel, but he didn't add any other specifics.

“They had to put [the new DVD] out because they’ve been selling out of the other one and so Universal’s like ‘So, let’s do another one.’ And now ... there’s now a chance there’s going to be another movie,” Tudyk told Moviehole.

There are several reasons why this would make a tremendous amount of sense. First of all, if made for a reasonable budget, any new "Serenity" movie would have a built-in and tremendously loyal fan base already in place to help recoup the studio's investment. And secondly, if this, as is most likely to be the case, goes directly to DVD, the money would be even easier to recoup.

As for Tudyk's involvement, anyone who's seen "Serenity" (and who in the world hasn't?) knows it would be hard for him to be too involved, unless the movie turned out to be a prequel of sorts (if you don't know why or can't figure it out, you won't hear it from me.) Whether or not he gets to be involved or not, I'm sure all fans of "Firefly" and "Serenity" will join me in giving even the idea of another flick a hearty huzzah. You can read all of Moviehole's piece here.

Friday trailer two-fer

These two YouTube clips are of wildly varying importance, so I'll start with the big one first. It is, as far as I can tell, the first trailer for Tim Burton's "Sweeney Todd," and it looks about as good as I could have possibly imagined. In it, you get to see Johnny Depp croon and Helena Bonham Carter swoon, and you even get a glimpse of Borat.


Next comes an appropriately silly teaser for Will Ferrell's next flick, "Semi-Pro." With a promising cast that includes Ferrell, Jackie Earle Haley, Andre "3000" Benjamin, Will Arnett, Maura Tierney (where has she been?), Woody Harrelson and Rob Cordry, I'm relatively optomistic that this flick about a semi-pro basketball team from Flint, Mich., (hopefully filmed in the rather dilapated city), will be very funny. Be warned: The entire clip focuses on Ferrell's rather hairy body, so if you don't to see that just say no. Peace out.