Oscar predictions: Who should and will win

Actually, the main question that pops into my mind about the Oscars this morning is why in the world do they wait so long between announcing the nominees and declaring the winners? Rather than building suspense, it really just sucks a lot of fun out of it as all the other awards get to go first, adding up to kudos overkill.

Still and all, they are the Oscars, so I'll tune in. And here are my predictions of who will win - and my picks of who should win - on Sunday night's broadcast.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom".
Should win: Jacki Weaver. If you haven't seen this gritty Australian gangster flick, definitely rent it if only to see how Weaver runs her family of two-bit crooks with her unique version of a mother's love.
Will win: Amy Adams and Melissa Leo should cancel either out here, with Hailee Steinfeld emerging as the winner, and why not? She really should be in the Best Actress category, but she was funny, fierce and fragile all at once in the Coen brothers' flick.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech".
Should win: John Hawkes, who as uncle "Teardrop" held all the cards he had about the movie's main mystery very close before playing them with perfect precision to help his niece find out the truth about his brother.
Will win: Unless he gets steamrolled by the "The King's Speech" express and Geoffrey Rush, who should really be a Best Actor nominee anyway, Christian Bale will run away with this for throwing himself so completely into the role of crack-addicted boxing trainer Dickie Eklund.

Best Actress
The nominees: Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine".
Should win: Michelle Williams. Along with Ryan Gosling, a major omission from the Best Actor field, she made up one half of the doomed couple at the center of Derek Cianfrance's great movie, and made her heartache surprisingly compelling - if not exactly fun - to watch.
Will win: This is easily the strongest category of the night, but in a battle mainly between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman, Portman will prevail for her portrayal of Nina, the ballerina driven way beyond the brink of madness in "Black Swan."

Best Actor:
The nominees: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours".
Should win: James Franco, who is the co-host of this year's Oscars broadcast with Anne Hathaway, took us on the full ride of emotions in Danny Boyle's exhilarating "127 Hours", even as he was trapped in a hole for most of the movie.
Will win: There's no stopping the king here, so Colin Firth will prevail for his pitch-perfect performance of stammering monarch George VI.

Best Director
The nominees: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit".
Should win: Darren Aronofsky turned what easily could have been a schlocky B-movie (and often still is) into a superb psychological thriller with "Black Swan," and for that he should be rewarded.
Will win: There's nothing people hate more here than a Best Director/Best Picture split, but I think that's what we'll have, with David Fincher winning Best Director for turning Aaron Sorkin's whip smart script about the creation of Facebook into an equally fun movie.

Best Picture
The nominees: "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "Inception", "The Kids Are All Right", "The King's Speech", "127 Hours", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "True Grit", "Winter's Bone".
Should win: Debra Granik's "Winter's Bone", a coming of age tale/film noir set in the Ozarks, has long been my favorite movie of 2010, and time has done nothing to change that.
Will win: The early buzz was for "The Social Network", but the late mojo is behind "The King's Speech", which will prevail, and as a period piece that has managed to become the people's champ without being stodgy, I can certainly live with that.

And there you have it. Please feel free to let me know of any of these you think I just got completely wrong and, for an awards list that's always much more fun (and a lot shorter) than the Oscars, check out the Bob Awards here. Always a great read. Peace out.